All economic indicators in Tunisia are flashing red as the country grapples with widening trade deficits,mounting debt vulnerabilities,and slowing growth in key sectors.
Meanwhile,the country’s autocratic leader drags feet on urgent reforms as the economy risks sliding into prolonged stagnation.
Tunisia’s trade deficit reached 8.4 billion dinars by the end of May 2025,driven by stagnant exports (+0.3%) and rising imports (+6.1%). Consumer goods and equipment purchases surged,while industrial inputs continued to decline,falling from 71.5% of imports before 2011 to 63.7% over the past five years.
Energy dependency remains critical,with the energy balance deficit accounting for 51.8% of the overall trade gap.
Credit ratings signal high risk: Moody’s rates Tunisia at Caa1 (stable) and Fitch at CCC+,limiting access to global markets. Short-term external debt now represents 38.5% of total obligations,undermining long-term investment prospects. Economists warn that chronic deficits could turn debt into a “drag on growth.”
Isolationist political rhetoric is gaining ground,a stance experts deem incompatible with Tunisia’s open economic structure. Heavy reliance on China,Algeria,and Russia for vital imports raises sovereignty concerns. China alone accounts for 13.6% of imports but buys almost nothing in return,contributing to 56.7% of Tunisia’s trade deficit.
Other weaknesses include gender inequality- Tunisia ranks 123rd globally- and security concerns,with Tunis among the least safe cities worldwide (228th out of 385),deterring investment and tourism.
With no clear economic roadmap and mounting external vulnerabilities,Tunisia faces a critical juncture. Analysts stress the need for urgent reforms to restore investor confidence,diversify exports,and address structural imbalances before the situation becomes irreversible.
United News - unews.co.za