Sahara: What Works Best for Algerian Regime, the U.S. carrot or the stick?

Oct 5, 2025 North America views: 106

The United States has recognized the Sahara as an integral and indivisible part of Morocco in 2020. America has also supported the Autonomy plan offered for the territory under Moroccan sovereignty as the only feasible solution to the Sahara conflict.

But the Algerian military regime,which has been arming,sheltering and funding the separatist Polisario Front since 1975 to destabilize the North Africa Kingdom,has refused so far to concede the American recognition. It has also rejected to engage in discussions without delay,using Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only framework to negotiate a mutually acceptable solution.

The conflict between Rabat and Algiers over the Sahara is now a half-century old,threatening regional peace and stability. Morocco has reached out to Algeria many times to settle all pending issues including the Sahara,but the ruling junta has refused to back-down,preferring to pursue its obstructionist strategy and anti-Moroccan propaganda.

After U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025,he sent his senior advisor Massad Boulos to Algeria to engage it to end the decades-long Sahara conflict on the basis of the Moroccan Autonomy plan. But the Algerian rulers showed reluctance. They proposed economic incentives to Washington as recommended by their lobbyist John Bolton,former U.S. national security advisor,one of Trump’s enemies.

The Algerian leaders erred when they thought the American offer or deal is negotiable. They forget that Trump,a successful businessman and a politician,keeps pushing and pushing until he reaches his goal. He plays hard and always wins.

So,the Trump administration has hammered the Algerian military regime with crystal-clear political statements reiterating American recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara and support of the Autonomy plan offered by the North African Kingdom under its sovereignty.

The U.S. supportive position was expressed several times this month by U.S. senior presidential advisor Massad Boulos,Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and Congressman Joe Wilson.

Through its deputy secretary of State Christopher Landau,Washington gave the green light to companies looking to invest and do business in all of Morocco,including its southern provinces. Over $5 billion funding will be injected in the Moroccan Sahara set to become a major regional economic hub.

The United States,penholder of the UN Security Council resolutions on the Sahara,is coordinating its diplomatic efforts with France and the United Kingdom,permanent members of Security Council,to close definitively the Sahara conflict and deploy the Autonomy plan on the ground with or without Algeria’s backing.

On the sidelines of the 80th UN General Assembly,Morocco gained more support for its territorial integrity and Autonomy plan proposed for the Sahara under its sovereignty.

In New York,Sahel countries,Burkina Faso,Mali,Niger,and Chad have all endorsed the Royal initiative offering Atlantic access to these African landlocked countries,deepening Algeria’s regional and international isolation.

As the U.S. pressure is mounting ahead of the Security Council meeting expected to take historic decisions on the Sahara,cracks started appearing inside the Algerian opaque military regime. The power struggle has reached its peak between the Presidency,the army chief and their respective clans.

The unexplained disappearance from public view of Algerian President for several weeks and the defection to Spain of General Abdelkader Haddad with top secrets are all evidence of the imminent fall of the authoritarian junta in Algeria.

After the collapse of military regimes in Libya,Yemen,Iraq,Sudan and Syria,experts say the Algerian regime will be next. Both the Generals and the Presidency are feeling the heat. Convinced that the “Western Sahara” game is over,they hit inflection point,according to some analysts.

They say that President Abdelmajid Tebboune has never missed an opportunity either with the press or at international meetings without reaffirming brazenly his country’s steadfast standing with the Polisario separatist group.

However,during his latest meeting with local journalists,he spoke about everything but buttoned his lip about Morocco,the Sahara,the Polisario,the Autonomy plan and U.S. supportive stand of Moroccan Sahara.

This is seen as a major shift in the Algerian position. On Sunday,U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau posted on his X account a message promising new horizons in U.S.-Algerian commercial ties and stressing the importance of building bridges that advance prosperity for both countries.

The move comes after the meetings held by Christopher Landau and Trump’s Senior Advisor Masaad Boulos with Algerian foreign minister Ahmed Attaf.

According to some analysts,the U.S. message signals that the Algerian regime has shown flexibility for the American deal which would lead to American investments in Algeria,the establishment of direct air links,and development of commercial ties.

But all these peace dividends hinge on ceasing hostility towards Morocco,U.S. ally and strategic partner,disbanding the polisario militia,endorsing the autonomy plan,and opening up the country.

The Algerian regime should stop its ranting misleading propaganda and start preparing the public opinion for the upcoming upending changes and closure of the Sahara conflict in favor of Morocco.

Some intelligence reports say Algeria is preparing for a major exit strategy from the Sahara conflict,but affirmed that there are some major internal challengers!

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