S&P raises Morocco’s rating to ‘BBB-/A-3’ with stable outlook

The Standard & Poors agency has raised Morocco’s sovereign credit rating from ‘BB+/B’ to ‘BBB-/A-3’ with stable outlook thanks to the resilience shown by the country’s economy in the face of consecutive economic shocks,including the one triggered by the instability in global trade because of U.S. trade tariffs.

Economic growth prospects are solid,with real GDP growth forecast to average 4% over 2025-2028,said S&P in a statement,noting that growth prospects are,however,vulnerable due to the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural output.

“We think that Morocco’s recent economic performance and its outlook are supported by its policy mix and strong structural socioeconomic and budgetary reform momentum,which we expect will continue to help further formalize and diversify the economy”,underlined the experts of the international rating agency.

They expect Morocco’s budget deficit to narrow to 3% of GDP in 2026,supported by higher government revenue,leading to a slow decline in the general government debt-to-GDP ratio while the current account deficit will remain contained,averaging about 2.1% of GDP over 2025-2028.

According to S&P,Morocco’s economy and agricultural sector are vulnerable to climate shocks,and recurring episodes of drought. To address these challenges,the authorities are implementing a large-scale action plan aimed at mitigating water scarcity. The government has simultaneously been adopting tax reforms and measures to attract investments,has launched the unified social security system registry,and has widened health care coverage.

“We think these reforms will continue to support economic growth and diversification as well as widen the tax base,reducing the budget deficit,” said the Standard & Poors agency.

It expects Morocco’s export performance to remain strong,partially offsetting higher imports. With the development of export-oriented sectors,the increase in Morocco’s export capacity (for example,with Tanger Med being the largest port on the continent),and a buoyant tourism sector,exports of goods and services increased to 42% in 2025 from an average of 32% of GDP over 2015-2019.

S&P anticipates this dynamism to continue in the coming years. In the first quarter,year-on-year GDP growth was 4.8%,supported by construction,manufacturing,tourism,ICT,and higher agricultural and phosphate output.

This trend continued into the second quarter. Cement sales increased 15,3% in the second quarter compared with 4.6% in the first quarter,confirming the dynamism of the construction sector. Phosphate output increased by 18% in the second quarter compared with 12% in the first quarter,and tourism receipts increased by over 19% in the second quarter compared with 4% in the first quarter.

As a result,the unemployment rate decreased to 12.8% in June 2025 from 13.1% in June 2024. Morocco’s Economic activity has benefited from a significant boost in exports,with current account receipts forecast to represent about 52% of GDP in 2025 compared with 38% in 2015.