Morocco’s Central Bank keeps key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, expects 4.6% Growth in 2025

Morocco’s Central bank has decided to maintain its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25 %,while continuing to strengthen the measures aimed at easing financing conditions for businesses,especially very small enterprises (VSEs).

The decision was made Tuesday by the Bank’s board after having analyzed national and international economic developments and reviewed medium-term macroeconomic projections.

Bank Al-Maghrib anticipates an acceleration in economic growth from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.6% this year,and a consolidation to 4.4% in 2026. Agricultural value added is expected to increase by 5% this year,considering a cereal harvest of 41.3 million quintals (MQx),then by 3.2 percent in 2026,assuming a production of 50 MQx. In non- agricultural sectors,and owing mainly to strong investment in infrastructure,growth is expected around 4.5% 2025 and 2026.

Inflation continues to evolve at moderate levels,averaging 1.1% over the first eight months of 2025. According to Bank’s projections,inflation is expected to remain virtually unchanged compared with 2024,before accelerating to 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation should decline from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025,then rise to 2% in 2026.

Thus,exports would increase by 6.2 % in 2025,mainly driven by a rise in the sales of phosphate and derivatives to over $12.2 billion,and by 9.4% in 2026,in line with the expected recovery in the automotive industry. Sales of the latter are expected to rebound by 20% in 2026 to $20.7 billion,following a slight decline this year.

Imports should rise by 7.4% in 2025,then by 7.1% in 2026,particularly reflecting a sharp increase in capital goods purchases,while the energy bill should continue falling to reach $10.4 billion in 2026.

At the same time,travel receipts are expected to maintain their performance,with additional increases of 11.3% this year and 4.8% next year to $14.5 billion. Remittances remained virtually stable this year and are projected to grow by 4.8% in 2026 to nearly $14 billion.

Under these conditions,the current account deficit would remain contained at around 2.3% of GDP in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026,after 1.2% in 2024. As for foreign direct investments,their revenues are expected to reach around 3.3% of GDP in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.