Tigray on edge: rising tensions threaten fragile peace in Ethiopia

Tigray is once again at the brink of conflict,as unresolved political disputes,contested territory,and a fragile ceasefire fuel rising fears of renewed war in Ethiopia’s northern region.

Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede,head of Tigray’s Interim Administration,has warned that federal attempts to return internally displaced persons (IDPs) to Western Tigray without consultation threaten to reignite violence. These unilateral actions bypass our authority,“are against the interests of the people of Tigray,” and thus risk plunging the region back into war,he stressed during a public address in Mekelle. Thousands of IDPs have protested,demanding urgent repatriation and shelter from worsening conditions. Yet,civil society groups like Tsilal Civil Society of Western Tigray caution that rushed returns without property restitution,security reforms,or consultation could spark instability.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement,signed in 2022 to end the devastating two-year war that killed over 600,000,remains only partially implemented. Western Tigray remains under Amhara control,and Eritrean troops have yet to withdraw. Addis Ababa blames the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) for stalling disarmament,while the TPLF accuses the federal government of blocking resettlement and political participation. Analysts warn that growing distrust between Ethiopia,the TPLF,and Eritrea could lead to another devastating conflict. “We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray,and with Eritrea,” said Chatham House’s Abel Abate. “It would be extremely devastating.”