Sahel worst hit by Jihadist violence which killed 150,000 in a decade, Study Finds

The Sahel has experienced a sustained high level of lethality tied to militant Islamist groups in recent years. The nearly 10,500 average annual deaths over the past 3 years are more than double the 4,900 annual fatalities experienced between 2020 and 2023,according to a recent study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

This represents a sevenfold increase in annual fatalities since 2019,the study reveals,noting that an estimated 950,000 square kilometers of populated African territory is outside of government control,plagued by Islamist violence and trafficking.

The study,which uses data from the U.N. Security Council,notes that while the threat is largely contained in North Africa and declining in Mozambique,it is spreading in the Lake Chad basin and worsening in Somalia. The situation is most dangerous in the Sahel,where militant Islamist groups linked to the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) network account for 83 percent of all fatalities.

Led by the Macina Liberation Front and Ansar Dine,these JNIM groups primarily operate in north,central,and southern Mali and southern Burkina Faso. Comprising an estimated 6,000-7,000 fighters (the vast majority of whom are from the Sahel),these groups are also pushing into the border areas of the coastal West African countries.

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) is the other main militant Islamist threat in this region,largely concentrated in northern Burkina Faso and western Niger. With an estimated 2,000-3,000 fighters,ISGS is both a rival to and cooperative with JNIM.

Burkina Faso is identified as a particular flashpoint,accounting for 55% of all victims in the Sahel. The nation’s armed forces are said to control only 40% of its territory,according to the study.

In Somalia,the al-Shabaab militant group poses the most persistent threat,with an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters. The group receives material support from Yemen’s Houthis and generates more than $200 million annually from extortion,taxes,and piracy.

However,unlike in the Sahel,civilian casualties are relatively low in Somalia,accounting for only 2% of victims in what are described as primarily battlefield engagements.