Africa eyes $1.5 trillion trade surge by 2025, but structural hurdles remain

Africa’s trade is poised to hit a record $1.5 trillion in 2025,driven by accelerating regional integration and improved infrastructure,according to projections from the IMF and Afreximbank — yet economists warn of persistent structural hurdles.

With trade growth expected to average 5.1% annually through 2026 and intra-African trade expanding at 6.6% per year,the continent is outpacing global averages and pushing toward deeper economic diversification. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is central to this momentum,fostering tariff reductions,harmonized customs,and regional value chain investments. Eastern Africa is set to lead GDP growth,while Central Africa is expected to post the fastest intra-trade gains at 12% annually.

However,critical gaps persist. Afreximbank Executive VP Kanayo Awani warns that intra-African trade has long been undermined by poor market intelligence,weak connectivity,and colonial-era trade structures that prioritized external over internal commerce. “Africans were not trading with one another,not because of a lack of will,but because of a lack of market intelligence,connectivity,and structured platforms,” Awani said at the recent ‘Nigeria for the Intra-African Trade Fair 2025 Business Roadshow’ held in Lagos. She cited examples such as West Africa spending $3 billion annually on meat imports despite abundant regional livestock.

To shift course,Awani advocates for an “Africa-first mentality” and stronger trade platforms like the upcoming Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF 2025) in Algeria. Meanwhile,Afreximbank President Benedict Oramah stresses the need for industrialization and digitalization to reposition Africa in a volatile global economy. Despite inflationary pressures and geopolitical headwinds,including a slowing China,the continent’s outlook remains robust — but structural reform,investment in human capital,and improved trade systems are vital to sustaining progress.