Nigeria’s rebased GDP rises, but Africa’s richest title remains elusive

Nigeria’s economy has officially grown larger — at least on paper — but the West African country still remains the continent’s fourth-largest economy,behind South Africa,Egypt,and Algeria.

Following a long-awaited GDP rebasing,the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised the country’s nominal output for 2024 to ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion),up from ₦314 trillion in 2023. The update,which changes the base year to 2019,incorporates informal and previously unaccounted sectors such as digital services,e-commerce,and real estate. Despite the statistical uplift and a 3.13% year-on-year real GDP growth in Q1 2025,Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy,behind South Africa ($410.3 billion),Egypt ($347.3 billion),and Algeria ($268.9 billion).

Experts say the new data offers a more accurate snapshot of Nigeria’s evolving economic structure. For independent investor,Amaechi Egbo,it’s a welcome technical step,but not a magic wand,which is why he warned that rebasing doesn’t translate to better living standards unless matched with inclusive growth. The services sector,led by ICT and real estate,contributed 57.15% to GDP,while agriculture posted a slight rebound of 0.07%. Crude oil’s relative contribution has declined. Analysts caution that while the rebasing improves Nigeria’s fiscal metrics,it doesn’t resolve deeper challenges: inflation,infrastructure gaps,and over-reliance on oil.

Still,with clearer data,policymakers have a better foundation for reforms. As Muda Yusuf,CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE),noted,the rebased figures demonstrate larger than previously reported size of the economy,as much as they reveal important structural shifts,particularly the growing prominence of real estate.