Ceasefire or capitulation? Iran retreats after strikes on its nuclear sites

On June 23,2025,U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel,ending a 12-day conflict that had pushed the Middle East to the edge of a regional war.

But while the announcement was framed as a diplomatic breakthrough,the facts on the ground suggest a different reality: Iran was forced into a ceasefire after suffering a decisive military defeat.

The turning point came on June 22,when the United States launched Operation Midnight Hammer,a surprise air campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

In a show of overwhelming force,U.S. B-2 stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s most fortified nuclear sites: Fordow,Natanz,and Isfahan. Meanwhile Tomahawk missiles were launched from a submarine in the Gulf. The strikes inflicted extremely severe damage,setting back Iran’s nuclear program by years.

Historically,Iran has shunned direct military confrontation with the United States and Israel. Instead,it has relied on a network of Arab proxies,including Hezbollah in Lebanon,various Shiite militias in Iraq,and the Houthis in Yemen,to project power and attack Israel,Gulf neighbors,and Western interests in the region. This strategy allowed Tehran to maintain plausible deniability while exerting influence across the region.

During the 12-day war,as Trump wishes to call it,Iran’s response unveiled the technological gaps with its adversaries in an asymmetry that underscores Iran’s reluctance and inability to engage in a full-scale war with technologically superior adversaries.

The token of response against Qatar seemed more like a set up than a genuine response. Qatar and the US have been informed beforehand of the attack to minimize damage.

Therefore,the ceasefire is rather a strategic defeat for Iran which lost its nuclear infrastructure. The destruction of Fordow and Natanz represents a major setback to its long-term deterrence.

The limited retaliation reveals Iran’s vulnerability as it reels under a diplomatic isolation.

The ceasefire was also announced unilaterally by Trump,with no indication of sanctions relief or security guarantees for Iran.

The reality is that Iran had little choice but to accept terms after suffering overwhelming losses.

On the other hand,Israel was able to achieve its strategic objectives with the backing of the United States. Israel’s goals were attained,notably neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat and deterring further escalation.